November 28
The Economist: High fuel prices could kill more Europeans than the war in Ukraine
Historically, energy price fluctuation had a relatively mild impact on the number of winter deaths observed in Europe, but this year the remarkable increases in energy costs could change the picture dramatically. The Economist built a statistical model to measure the effect of the price shock in mortality. For this process, VaasaETT and the HEPI project provided historical electricity and natural gas end-user price data and a collection of support measures and their impact in the end-user price.
In this powerful piece of data journalism, the authors are attempting to assess if the mortality rates this winter in Europe will exceed the number of soldiers who have died so far fighting in Ukraine. The article is taking into account four critical factors; the severity of the flu season, different winter temperatures scenarios, the end-user energy prices (taking under consideration the national support measures) and the relationship between energy costs and deaths.
Even with the covid-19 developments and the state aid to relieve the vulnerable households remaining unweighted factors that make safe predictions harder, the article reaches to the alarming and firm conclusion that ‘if the patterns from 2000-19 do continue to apply in 2022-23, Russia’s energy weapon will prove highly potent’ and that the ‘current electricity prices would drive deaths above the historical average even in the mildest winter’.
View the full article and the graphic detail: